Nigeria may face a severe food crisis in 2026 as farmers across the country, particularly in the North-Central and North-West regions, warn that soaring production costs, worsening insecurity, and mounting post-harvest losses are forcing many to consider abandoning farming.

From Niger to Nasarawa, Kogi, and Kaduna States, small and medium-scale farmers told Nairametrics that despite recent government directives aimed at reducing food prices, the surging costs of key inputs—fertiliser, fuel, and labour—have made farming increasingly unprofitable.

Many warned that unless urgent measures are taken to address these challenges, the nation could face a major food supply shortfall next year.

Ibrahim Abdullahi, a rice farmer in Niger State, lamented that despite repeated federal government assurances of agricultural support, the realities on the ground remain grim.

“The cost of fertiliser, pesticides, and fuel has tripled in the last two years. We can barely break even, and most of us are already in debt,” Abdullahi said. “If this continues into next year, many farmers will walk away from the farms. That’s when the real food crisis will hit.”

Similarly, Simeon Dabeng, a maize farmer in Kogi State, described the situation as dire, noting that insecurity and inadequate government support have worsened farmers’ losses.

“The cost of production is extremely high. Farmers lack the necessary support, and yet we’re being asked to lower prices without any subsidy or incentive,” he said.

 *Farmers Accuse FG of Neglect* 

Bashir, a rice farmer from Niger State, said President Bola Tinubu’s directive to reduce food prices is unsustainable without direct intervention to support producers.

“Government must reduce input costs and improve rural infrastructure to sustain production. Otherwise, this push to lower prices will collapse,” he stated.

In Nasarawa State, maize farmer Patience Ayuba expressed frustration at what she described as years of neglect by successive administrations.

“Farmers are tired of empty promises. We can’t keep producing at a loss while everything—from seeds to diesel—keeps getting more expensive. Many of our youths have left farming because there’s no profit or protection,” she said.

Farmers also decried the collapse of previous support programmes such as the Anchor Borrowers Programme introduced under former President Muhammadu Buhari, which they said once boosted agricultural output.

“When the Anchor Borrowers Programme started, many of us went into full-scale farming. But since it ended, no new initiative has reached us. We can’t continue working at a loss,” a maize farmer in Nasarawa said.

 *Insecurity Deepens Crisis* 

Widespread insecurity across northern Nigeria continues to hinder agricultural production. Banditry, kidnapping, and herder-farmer clashes have forced thousands of farmers to abandon their farmlands, while others now hire private security at exorbitant costs.

Many have urged the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security and state governments to prioritise smallholder farmers in their 2026 budget allocations.

 *FAO Warns of Looming Food Emergency* 

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) recently warned that about 34.7 million Nigerians could face acute food insecurity during the 2026 lean season (June–August) if coordinated interventions are not implemented.

The FAO’s October 2025 Cadre Harmonisé report attributes the risk to persistent conflict, economic shocks, and organized crime in key food-producing areas—particularly in Benue, Nasarawa, Niger, and Plateau States.

Dr. Grace Alonge, an agricultural economist at the University of Abuja, said early warning signs are already evident.

“We’re seeing reduced cultivation, poor yields, and farmers withdrawing from production. Without targeted interventions such as subsidised inputs, access to credit, and improved rural security, Nigeria may face one of its worst food crises in recent history,” she warned.

Similarly, Dr. Ben Okukpe of Nasarawa State University, Keffi, noted that while the government’s effort to reduce food prices is commendable, it must be backed by strong policy support.

“Price controls won’t work without subsidies, mechanisation, and affordable credit for farmers. The government must act decisively,” he said.

 *Economic Indicators Show Temporary Relief* 

Recent figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show a marginal decline in inflation. Nigeria’s headline inflation rate slowed to 18.02% in September 2025, down from 20.12% in August 2025. Food inflation also dropped to 16.87%, a sharp decline from 37.77% in September 2024.

However, analysts caution that these short-term gains may not translate into lasting relief if production challenges persist.

As one farmer put it: “We want to feed the nation, but we can’t do it alone. The government must act now—not with promises, but with real action. Otherwise, next year’s harvest may be the smallest Nigeria has seen in decades.”